http://www.hedgefolios.com/read Helping equity investors build and manage their own portfolios in bullish or bearish markets Mon, 17 Nov 2008 18:22:28 +0000 http://backend.userland.com/rss092 en Normally, I look at the Federal Reserve's Commercial Paper information a few times per week. I like to keep on top of the real data rather than reading the spin from major media sources. I know it's easy to forget about ABCP or pretend that the liquidity issues ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/missing-commercial-paper-maturity-data Mark-to-Market has been tough on the financial sector stocks. But not every holder of CDO's are publicly-traded like Merrill or Bear Stearns where we get to dissect their financial statements. In fact, we know that pension funds and state treasuries were buying up this crap as late as ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/pension-plans-are-they-marking-to-market I had to wait for a few hours after the FOMC decision before writing this useless summary - yep - useless. The Fed cuts and statement are being parsed, interpreted and spun like usual - totally useless commentary from people in love with rate cuts. So ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/parse-interpret-spin In 15 minutes, the FOMC will release their decision on rates. The majority of the market really cares what happens. I suspect that many people are "true believers" that government intervention is necessary to save the economy. Others who want a cut just want a cut because ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/the-results-of-the-last-fed-cut I've been doing a lot of thinking about my market view versus the predominantly bullish tone that has been in control for the past 5 years. I know it seems that I am never bullish, but if you just take a look at the HEDGEfolios Timing Indicator, you'll see ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/why-hedgefolios-is-not-bullish Despite last week's rally and moderation of the declining slope which began on October 15th, I am still bearish. With the impending FOMC rate decision and the bullish views that intervention will juice stock prices, it's not easy to be bearish. But that's what I am seeing and ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/still-bearish Some people just don't get Halloween anymore. When I was a kid, it was much simpler and more fun. We put on costumes, we walked the city neighborhoods without an adult and we got a bunch of candy. In rural areas we went to the firehouse or ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/bad-trick-or-treat For the past week and especially since Sunday night, CNBC has barraged us with second-by-second "reporting" of Stan O'Neal's departure from Merrill Lynch. Charlie Gasparino has gotten a lot of air time reporting nothing - unless of course you find reporting a new rumor to replace the last rumor ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/reporting-rumors-2 When Merrill Lynch appears to need to raise capital by selling its Bloomberg stake, that concerns me. It's a scary thought for a capital company to need to conserve it. Where did Merrill's capital go? A year ago, Merrill's CFO Jeff Edwards was bragging about its increased risk strategies. ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/where-did-merrills-capital-go If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? This longtime philosophical riddle centers on the difference between reality and perception. In a similar tone, I ask the question.... If earnings expectations formed 3 months ago were 81 ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/earnings-riddle