http://www.hedgefolios.com/read Helping equity investors build and manage their own portfolios in bullish or bearish markets Mon, 06 Oct 2008 18:44:42 +0000 http://backend.userland.com/rss092 en What the hell are Auction Rate Securities? I suspect a lot of people might be wondering that today when they read through the Bristol-Myers (BMY) quarterly report or coverage like this from Bloomberg. It reminds me of the reactions to the first mentions of CDOs and SIVs. When I ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/auction-rate-securities The Fed needs to spend less time paying attention to investors. Investors need to spend less time paying attention to the Fed. I know the incessant media coverage makes it impossible for investors to ignore FOMC decisions, but be objective. Look back on the past several months and all the Fed ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/performance-of-fed-watching Last week, I went bearish prior to the Asian and European sell-offs. That was before the SocGen fiasco and more importantly, it was before "Super Stallion Ben" supposedly reacted to economic news (not global stock market declines according to his defenders). I am not sure ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/waiting Most economists suck at predicting the economy. They don't seem to make the best investors or portfolio managers either. I am not sure what value they really add but that is for another post. I suspect no one would really want an economist to run a major ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/ceo-or-economist At the height of the credit crisis last fall, the spread between the 3-month Treasury bill and the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper rate was about 225 bps. Now we are at 110 bps. For most of the 2000's it's been about 40-50 bps. Was risk being priced properly ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/asset-backed-commercial-paper-yields For much of last year, the Goldilocks crowd was proclaiming the health and resilience of the American consumer. Every chance to hype retail sales was taken, even a few months ago before the holiday shopping season. They had to do that because when times were good they ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/two-thirds-of-the-economy Here is what I think of the effects on the markets or the economy of the President's proposals in last night's State of the Union address. . http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/state-of-the-union-effects I have very little to say about SocGen and what that whole mess meant (or means) for the markets. Who is the "rogue" trader - Kerviel or Bernanke? Who is a puppet/scapegoat/fall guy - Kerviel or Bernanke? Regardless, it doesn't really affect what I do with stocks ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/socgen Pro golfers need to bring their "A-game" if they hope to compete with Tiger Woods. Similarly, you better bring your "A-game" if you want to compete in this market. Since Super Stallion Ben came to rescue the markets (from what I do not know), the bulls have been ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/bring-your-a-game Bill Ackman of Pershing Square is getting a lot of attention lately for his "timely" shorting and questioning of the risks with the monolines (MBIA and Ambac.) The reality is that Bill has been saying this stuff for many years - since 2002 actually. Check out this article ... http://www.hedgefolios.com/read/bill-ackman-and-the-monolines