A Surprise, but not a Shanghai Surprise
I did not expect record highs on a day like today, but given my bearishness, I guess I have lost the credibility to even question it. So I just accept it and move forward. Regardless of my personal opinion, the bulls really put on a show today and most likely, the bears screwed up again. I was glad to see that the markets did not sell off in response to China and yet, the failure to decline is a weak reason to rally almost 1%. Having the Fed minutes reinforce the case for uncomfortable inflation and slow growth expectations for the rest of the year may be inspiring to the bulls, but not to me. Then again, the bulls are running this show and not me. This week’s signal work didn’t tell me too much and had almost the same number of new UPs to new DOWNs with an edge to more bullishness for the second consecutive week. Clearly, the action over the past two days is not consistent with my view but the HEDGEfolios Timing Indicator is still showing a bearish bias. While it is becoming more bullish, I will be waiting to see if it manages to cross over.

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