Bullish and Lonely

Go figure that I finally go bullish and everyone seems to leave me! Oh well - I have been through this before and it’s a lot easier to do it on the up side of the debate. But seriously, it can get a tad annoying to switch my bias and have the market suddenly seem worried over the things I have been harping on for months. When I looked over the charts this weekend, I became even more optimistic than the previous week. It wasn’t so much that I gave a lot of new UP signals (151) vs. new DOWN signals (43) but I was more encouraged by the strength that I saw in existing UPs. Early this morning I posted a list of 224 UPs that looked like they would outperform the market this week and that was about 3 times as many as I saw last week. Given that we have had two pathetic days, I guess it might not be so tough to beat the S&P 500 but I am not willing to call it a down week yet. Lately, Chairman Bernanke has calmed the markets during congressional testimony so tomorrow will give him another chance to put on his best bullish spinjob. Last week, it seemed like investors were willing to ignore bad economic data and that has not been the case over the past two days. I was a bit surprised that the bad housing data and Lennar results would shock investors given that we have heard this story for months, but for some reason, it was cause for new concern. Similarly, the decline in consumer confidence shouldn’t have been unexpected but I guess people are starting to add up a lot of different signals and finally see that the consumer is in danger. By the way, despite my bullish bias, I have not changed my prior warnings about the threats to consumerism in the US. I have not seen signs of significant selling pressure and until that returns, I am going with the ability and desire for this market to want to head higher on anemic volume. I don’t like it, but I am still bullish and feeling more lonely than I thought I would.