Chinese Checkers
If you have ever played the Chinese Checkers board game, you know that you can make a bunch of big moves - forward, backward, diagonal, sideways and any combination of those actions can very quickly get you right back to where you started. The Chinese stock market is not much different. Birinyi Research put out a report yesterday showing that China’s Shanghai and Shenzen Composites are back right where they were prior to putting a scare into our markets. Before last night’s slight decline in Asia, the Shenzen was up 10.7% and the Shanghai was up 6.5% since 2/27. When the same markets declined at the end of January, hardly anyone paid attention and the stocks shot back up. When they declined on 2/27, many commentators suddenly paid attention and suggested that our markets were falling entirely because of their problems. However, why did the same thing not happen in January? The only difference between the January event and the February event was our reaction. Other commentators suggested that investors were just “repricing risk”. I didn’t agree with either of those ideas then and now that Chinese stocks are right back to where they were two weeks ago, what do we say? Is China less risky now than it was at the same prices two weeks ago when everyone seemed to be saying that their markets were overvalued, shaky and not adequately pricing risk? Risk is something that you get rewarded for by being ahead of it and punished for if you are behind it. The Chinese market is very risky now, just as it was then - is our market paying enough attention to be ahead of it?

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