ETF Divergence
One of the things I look for to give me a lot of confidence in my bias for individual stocks is the charts of all the ETFs I follow. I don’t like a divergence between a bullish move I see in stocks and the related ETFs but that is the case this week. The only ETF I changed was TLT- the 20-year bond proxy and that was very interesting. I was expecting to change a bunch of the DOWN signals but none of them looked like they were good enough entry points. Unless I start feeling pressured to change them, I am going to bet on another leg down in the near future. One aspect of this is the possibility that the ETFs are being used to hedge a downside move and I’ll be watching this closely. Hopefully you are not confused about my posts saying I am bullish and this one saying I am expecting a downside move. HEDGEfolios reflects my assessment of what I think the market is going to do, not what I personally think it should do. When my view of the ETF charts is not as bullish as my interpretation of individual stocks, I just remain very skeptical.

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