Fed Fighting

  • On January 3, 2001 the Fed Funds rate declined to 6% and continued lower until hitting 1% on June 25, 2003.  During that period of massive Fed rate cuts, the S&P 500 declined 28%.  So much for fighting the Fed.
  • From June 2003 until June 2004 when the Fed did nothing to rates, the market advanced 17%.  No reason to fight the Fed but the market did well while they didn’t mess around.
  • From June 30, 3004 when Fed Funds began their rise from 1% to 5.25% on June 29, 2006, the market advanced 12%.  Fighting the Fed seemed to work out just fine.
  • From June 29, 2006 until September 18, 2007 the Fed Funds remained constant.  Once again, no reason to fight the Fed and the market went up 19%.
  • From September 18th when Fed Funds were cut by 50 bps until today, the S&P 500 has fallen 4%.

Maybe all you Fed fanatics love to repeat the phrase “Don’t fight the Fed” but I have no idea why - based upon recent history. Sure, you can talk about lagged effects and all that stuff, but when I look at the actual results of their actions, I just don’t see it.  Obviously, there are many reasons why the market went up or down, but the Fed Fighting nonsense is not something I can buy into.