Fed Fighting
- On January 3, 2001 the Fed Funds rate declined to 6% and continued lower until hitting 1% on June 25, 2003. During that period of massive Fed rate cuts, the S&P 500 declined 28%. So much for fighting the Fed.
- From June 2003 until June 2004 when the Fed did nothing to rates, the market advanced 17%. No reason to fight the Fed but the market did well while they didn’t mess around.
- From June 30, 3004 when Fed Funds began their rise from 1% to 5.25% on June 29, 2006, the market advanced 12%. Fighting the Fed seemed to work out just fine.
- From June 29, 2006 until September 18, 2007 the Fed Funds remained constant. Once again, no reason to fight the Fed and the market went up 19%.
- From September 18th when Fed Funds were cut by 50 bps until today, the S&P 500 has fallen 4%.
Maybe all you Fed fanatics love to repeat the phrase “Don’t fight the Fed” but I have no idea why - based upon recent history. Sure, you can talk about lagged effects and all that stuff, but when I look at the actual results of their actions, I just don’t see it. Obviously, there are many reasons why the market went up or down, but the Fed Fighting nonsense is not something I can buy into.

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