Finding Bottoms

There has been a tremendous amount of hype and hope about trying to find bottoms. Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Is it over? Did we capitulate? Was it a short covering rally? Are the “bargain hunters” loading up on all those bargains? Did we bounce off a support level, complete an Elliott wave, end a fibonacci retracement, or was it some other form of technical voodoo? Sometimes the answers are less important than the questions. Whenever I hear people grasping to find any answer that will stick, I evaluate all these questions and the desperation that accompanies them. Usually, the answers we accept today, we reject tomorrow and begin the pursuit for the next answer that will inevitably be proven false. We have had 3 years of runup without a meaningful pullback and very few questions were being asked along the way. Obviously, most people assume that stocks should go up and don’t need an explanation when that happens. Now the questions are flying after a few weeks of market weakness and everyone wants to know how to find a bottom. I have always felt that bottoms find you, you don’t find them. I didn’t find a bottom in yesterday’s v-shaped action - but if we get a few more positive days, the bottom just may find me.