Good Reasons To Invest?

There are good reasons to invest like company-specific fundamentals and improving technicals. Unfortunately, right now many of the things being used to encourage investors are not so good.

1) The Fed rumored to be cutting rates and continue its lending to banks. If you are basing your investing decisions on the hope that the economy and financial markets are so bad that the Fed needs to keep adding liquidity like an IV drip into a intensive care patient, you are in trouble.

2) Goldman Sachs not liquidating or bailing out Hedge Funds. If you are impressed with the smartest guys in the room losing billions of dollars but still being able to attract new investors, you have really lowered the bar. It was convenient to attach the names of great investors like Eli Broad and Hank Greenberg and then later disclose that Goldman was coming up with 2 of the 3 billion dollars. Of course, we don’t know how much Eli and Hank put in but if you are more impressed with their names being used as a marketing endorsement than the fact that the Goldman funds were losing billions, you are very mixed up.

3) Sears Holdings reporting crappy results but increasing its buyback. If you continue to disregard a company’s operating performance in exchange for news that the share repurchase program is being increased, you have lost sight of fundamentals. Please consider this commentary from the SHLD press release:

For the second quarter, Kmart comparable store sales decreased by 3.8 percent, with declines across most categories. Sears domestic comparable store sales decreased by 4.3 percent, with declines across most categories…

Look back at previous quarters and you’ll see similar stories. The company disappoints but buybacks are used to confuse the issue. While Eddie Lampert is a great investor, just remember that buybacks have been going on when the shares were trading about $45 higher.

4) Retail Sales. If you are impressed with July’s Retail Sales data released today that showed a whopping 0.3% increase, you are an unbelievable optimist about consumer spending. Please remember that last week’s same store sales data was disappointing and that July is a key month for back to school spending. If 0.3% represents the best we can do for back to school, I feel sorry for the kids. And just as a reminder, this year’s number was less than 1/3rd of last July’s 1% retail sales growth.

There are many good reasons to invest - please focus on them rather than this other stuff.