Jackson Hole Redux
Last year I jokingly complained that I got No Jackson Hole Invitation.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is sponsoring its big economic symposium in Jackson Hole at the end of this week and I’ve not been invited. There’s no skiing this time of year but I’d still love to be there. It’s a tough ticket with only about 100 invites going out to the Fed members and other “prominent central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and financial market participants from around the world.” Obviously, I would never expect to be in this crowd and I have no idea what really goes on there. But my impression is that it’s groupthink at its worst. One economist debating with another economist might lead to an economics lesson, but I wonder what it means for the rest of us. For example, Chairman Bernanke’s Friday morning lecture is entitled “Housing and Monetary Policy” and while I am sure the past few weeks have provided a few good revisions to the final draft, what will it do? Who will hear it but a bunch of the same people who have contributed to the mess that we now have?
Guess what? I didn’t make enough (read none) friends at the Fed lately(read never) to garner an invite this year either! It’s funny even thinking how long I would be able to hold in the laughter if I was there listening to these brainiacs or how long it might take to blurt out a few “BULLSHIT!” interruptions as they discussed their policies or economic predictions. It’s better for all of them that people like me are not there. After all, would you really want to compare thoughts and predictions on the likely consequences of government intervention policies and economic statistics from someone like me to the leading economists on the planet?
Speaking of that - maybe you should reread last year’s Jackson Hole speech by Bernanke(click here) and now that we have the benefit of hindsight (and lots of it) to determine whether he said anything so insightful last year that helped us out over the past 12 months. I didn’t find much other than this nice comment about half way through:
Ben Bernanke ……”It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve–nor would it be appropriate–to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions.”
Oh well, none of this is important. What matters is the perception that he and his Jackson Hole buddies know what to do. HMMMMM!?! I am having flashback hell right now.
Rewind to last year…on the day when Bernanke spoke. Here is what I wrote about getting impressed by Knowing What We Should Already Know.
If you were pleased by the assurances that the Fed is aware of the problem and they will do whatever they need to do to deal with it, you’ll probably also benefit from knowing:
- The sun is likely to come up tomorrow.
- The administration is concerned about terrorism.
- The Treasury has a strong dollar policy.
- Objects in the mirror are closer than they appear.
- Hot surfaces may burn.
I have heard way too many market participants suggest that they were confused about whether the Fed knew what they knew. As if they knew more than the Fed. So now that Ben has assured you that he in fact is not asleep, what the hell good is that? He has been busting his ass doing extreme things with monetary policy and he’s accused of being asleep. I learned nothing from his Jackson Hole commentary and didn’t need him to tell me he was paying attention. Apparently, investors like this kind of thing.
Do you remember August 31, 2007? It was just at the beginning of something that got really bad for those attending Jackson Hole and those sitting at home. The Dow opened at 13240.84 and ran up quickly about 190 points to 13428.95 on the hype that Bernanke knew what he was doing and would stop at nothing to fix it. By the end of the day, the Dow declined 70 points off the day’s high. Since then…..well, we know what happened.
So in hindsight, I have to ask? Does anyone really believe that the 200 point(look familiar?) bounce we got this morning really came from confidence that Bernanke and his Jackson Hole buddies know what they are doing and would stop at nothing to fix it?

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