More Than Oil

With all the oil talk in the media, it’s easy to fall into the trap of their One Track Mind. Yes - oil is high relative to the past. Yes - gas prices are high relative to the past. But energy is not the only thing going on in the stock markets.  We went through this with financials last fall and winter.  We went through this with the Yen Carry trade last spring.  A week ago, high oil prices were largely ignored.  A few weeks ago, the rise in the Dow Transports was seen as a huge buy signal by the Dow Theory cult, especially because it was happening while oil prices were high.   How has that worked out?   Now, oil is so important that CNBC has devoted a special ticker on its screen to the price per barrel.  Once again, I will remind you…. there is more going on right now than oil.  Please do not lull yourself into believing that if oil starts to go down, that all the problems are solved.  Certainly, this relief reflex will happen.  At least until something else becomes a problem or at least until oil starts to turn higher again.   Investing is a very complex process and when we get so focused on one factor, we run the risk of getting hammered by other things being ignored in the background.