“Mike is negative a lot.” That’s what people close to me would tell you. They would also tell you I am extremely blunt and often, my negative talk also turns out to be right. When I was warning people about market risks for the few months prior to February 27th, it was annoying. When I was right about those risks during March, it was also annoying, but if you had followed the signals at HEDGEfolios, you probably would have more money in your account than if you had listened to all the “shiny happy people.” You decide which is more important.

Sometimes, in weak moments, I start to question why I just don’t sell out and be like the majority of commentators who are stuck in permabull mode. And then I snap out of it. I would not be very convincing and everyone would see through the act. When I am bullish, I am bullish. The rest of the time, I am not. A few years ago, my partner and I dared to be negative on LLY at $103 per share. With Indy being its headquarters, you cannot imagine the backlash for taking such a view. Clients told us we were wrong and felt like we were always negative on the stock. Of course, their opinion did not change when the stock got halved. I learned a very valuable less back then: “Being negative will not make you friends, but being positive may make you poor.”

Most people love market optimism. They could have just suffered through a one-day 10% decline in a stock and if some talking head tells them that it’s a great buying opportunity, the pain is gone. There doesn’t seem to be any accountability for bad advice as long as it was said with optimistic enthusiasm and a smiley face. Mea culpas with positive tones are often given a rapid forgiveness. On the other hand, people don’t want to hear negatives when they are happy. In fact, they don’t want to hear them when they are sad either, because they already feel like they have heard enough negative talk.

The market is having a mini-mania right now. Saying something negative, no matter if it is true, will likely not be rewarded. So Rah Rah Rah! Wow - Dow 13,000- New record highs - Blah Blah Blah. I just had to get that out of my system so I could go back to telling you what I think will help you make money and avoid losing it.