Newbies

When this market finally takes a turn for the worst, where will your money be? Most likely it will be with a “Newbie.” I know most money managers will tell you that this bull run has a long way to go. But just consider the possibility that they are wrong. The last time we had a bearish direction in equities, there were far fewer hedge funds and they were managing a lot less money. The same can be said for mutual funds, money managers and stock brokers. Just think about the funds that are funneling into emerging market stocks and you have to realize when the last bear market was in play, US investors had very little in foreign markets. I hate to leave out all those ETFs that have come on board in the past few years. How about you gold bugs and commodity players? And as for bond funds, it’s been a beautiful 25-year bullish move. We have had simultaneous bull runs in almost every asset class for years. In this expansion, money is flowing in and performance is key. But what about risk? I think it’s time that you ask the people managing your money what they were doing the last time it was really tough to make money and even tougher to avoid losing it. What experience do they have with adversity? If you get on the train that has gone straight and fast for long periods of time, don’t you think it’s important to ask whether the driver has any experience with curves and hills? For that matter, do they know where the brake is and how to apply it. There are a lot of experienced people managing investments and if you are lucky enough to be with the few whose experience includes getting beaten up before, you will be better off. If you are with the “Newbies”, you may turn out okay and you may not.