I don’t believe in “I Told You So’s” and gloating is a part of that theory. If you want to see where I stand on anything, just read backwards through this blog or search for a date or topic and you’ll be able to figure out what I said.

This market has been struggling for weeks in my opinion and despite my commentary, I believe I have failed to convince anyone who didn’t already agree with me. Today’s selloff is consistent with the negativity that I have been seeing for the past month since the HEDGEfolios Timing Indicator gave a bearish crossover on April 30th.

For the past three days, I have gone on record to question the action that looked like a three-humped camel. When the market surged this morning on the housing data, I cringed. Not because I thought it was spiking against me, but because I feared the people who were buying would regret it. I have a tremendous amount of conviction towards the downside and on days when we head higher, I hurt. I hate being wrong. When something like today’s reversal comes along, I don’t feel any better.

Just know that there is no evidence that today’s action is an end to anything. When we sold off on February 27th, the downward slope was unsustainable. I have said “Stocks are Like People and People are Like Stocks” and part of that means that stocks will not go down until investors lose playing the same game. Until now, buying dips has been a winning strategy. When this decline stops, it will likely be due to investors who have benefitted from buying the selloffs. Until that strategy fails, it will be tried again. It has not failed for a while.