Now And Then

Now and then, investing legends get quoted on their opinions of the markets. It’s impressive to some people I guess.

Today’s big line comes from Mark Mobius.

NOW: April 17, 2008 Mark Mobius on the state of the credit crisis - “I think we are near the end of it, because most of the bad news is already in the market.”

Does that cheer you up? Before you answer, consider this….

THEN: September 12, 2007 Mark Mobius on the state of the subprime crisis. - “The stock market has already discounted all of the subprime problem.” According to Mobius, the impact of US. subprime mortgage losses on global markets was “over” in September. Was it?

You can answer now. Do the reassuring comments from Mobius today cheer you up? Do they sound anything like the comments from September?

Mobius and any other market “guru” should not be regarded for their commentary. They should be evaluated based upon their actual portfolio management performance. That’s what they get paid to do.

I understand why financial journalists seek out their opinions on just about every market issue and even those topics for which they have no real expertise or historically strong track record. However, investors place way too much emphasis on their every word, especially when the investor really wants to hear a legend tell them everything is okay. Now and Then they are correct….Now and Then they are incorrect.