Oil goes up and stock investors are not sensitive. After all, Exxon Mobil and Chevron make up about 12% of the Dow. Nonetheless, I have been impressed (in a bad way) that investors don’t seem to care or be sensitive as oil prices increase about 100% in a year. Conversely, I have been impressed (in a bad way) that investors seem to care or be sensitive as oil prices decrease 1% in a day. I have seen a lot of commentary that suggests investors believe oil prices are peaking and we are ignoring higher oil prices because the future is brighter or less expensive. Of course, there is no evidence of any of that. Oil prices have increased about 20% since the stock market lows on March 17th. Stocks have gone up about 14% since then. If oil drops 20%, we’ll see $100 per barrel again - a level that scared the hell out of us when oil was at $60. With today’s optimistic market, a decline to $100 per barrel might give us another 20% gain in stocks. If oil rises another 20%, we’ll see $150 per barrel. With today’s optimistic market, that may not be taken seriously either. Maybe another 14% gain. Right now, the only thing that seems to matter is the prospects for lower oil. However, that optimism has been going on for months and as it relates to oil prices - it has been wrong. With each increase in oil, a 20% pullback gets us back to levels from just a few months ago when we were also hoping for a 20% reduction. Some day all this will catch up with us.