Katrina, Rita, Wilma - they were terrible - and so were many weathermen that I will not name for protective purposes. But that is their job and yet, I find fault with some in the energy pits. Many energy traders looked to NOAA and its National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center to generate bets on the oil markets. Initially, NOAA said “the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates an 80% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 15% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.” And later in the May report they said “The outlook calls for a very active 2006 season, with 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes.”

When that didn’t happen, oil dropped and Amaranth suffered the impacts of taking the wrong side of the natural gas trade. I’d prefer that our oilmen didn’t pretend to be weathermen or that weathermen didn’t pretend to be weathermen for that matter. At some point, it all gets a little nuts and even more so when I hear the most recent prognostications from the guys that sit in front of radar screens, not fundamental or technical screens. In case you missed it, here you go: “Meteorologists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released the latest seasonal outlook, which reiterates this winter is likely to be warmer than the 30-year norm (1971-2000) over much of the nation, yet cooler than last year’s very warm winter season.” Very impressive! Remember - this is the same organization that told us there was an 80% chance of having another bad hurricane season. Now we are hearing how the growing El Nino pattern will give us a warm winter. Once again, oilmen are betting that the weathermen are correct and are using it as a justification for lower oil and gas prices. Brilliant!! I am not saying that I know what weather we will actually have, but give me a minute and I’ll stick my finger in the air and I’ll come up with a forecast. It cannot be any worse than the hurricane experts came up with and look how much money that cost us. Good luck with the weather this winter no matter where you are and please don’t let it affect your investing too much.