Reflex
China markets held up well last night and as a result, there is a relief reflex coming on today’s open. Meanwhile, the rest of Asia declined about 2.5 to 3.5% and Europe is still struggling with followthrough losses around 1%. Birinyi’s take is that past drops were followed by weaker opens and improvement throughout the day. In this case, it looks like we will get a bounce on the open and the rest of the day will be up to investors. I know the bulls would be thrilled to get all of yesterday’s “one-day correction” back in one shot, but I doubt it. We don’t get “do overs” and if investors did not learn something from yesterday, we are truly in a state of denial that is consistent with manias. As I wrote last week, I don’t feel the market is grossly overvalued and yet, the lowering of growth rates should not be ignored. China intends to lower theirs and more importantly, ours is being lowered by market forces. Today’s release of 4th quarter GDP was revised lower to 2.2%. Corporate earnings growth declined in the most recent quarter and 2007 is looking at even lower numbers. Hopefully, yesterday called attention to some of these issues.

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