Some people give contrarians a lot of credit for going against the herd, like some red badge of courage. I am inclined to do that too at times (when it’s warranted.) Maybe it’s empathy as I am often in the minority with my signals and the market timing aspect of the HedgeFolios Timing Indicator. It feels good to root for the underdog. Sometimes it’s tough to offer an opinion that goes against common wisdom (or common stupidity) and other times it seems easy.

Being a contrarian is a neat way to call attention to yourself and stick out as a hero when you turn out to be right. If things don’t eventually match your unique view, most people will give you a pass and suggest that the odds were stacked against you. That’s the part that makes being a contrarian easy and I take no comfort in it. You should get no credit for being contrarian and being wrong - only for being contrarian and being right. When I am wrong, I am wrong - not contrarian. Saying the sun will rise in the west may be contrarian, but it is also wrong.

We admire the famed Pacific salmon that swims upstream, the ultimate rebel, the ultimate contrarian. We celebrate the ones that make it to spawn a new generation of future contrarians. Just remember the majority of these contrarians die before making it there and the rest die within two weeks of being successful. I hate to be a downer but we need to NOT admire contrarians who find it easier to maintain an opposite view because they don’t want to admit being wrong. I admire contrarians who are right. More often than not, contrarians are often equated to bears and when it comes to that group (people like Doug Kass, Bill Fleckenstein, Jim Chanos, David Tice, Barry Ritholtz et al) - they are worthy of my admiration. Their thoughts are well reasoned, not just blindly contrarian and usually, they are right.

In the current Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment poll from Birinyi Associates, the commentary suggests that a high percentage of the respondents are bearish and are contrarian because the market has been heading higher. Note that I have voted “bullish” each week since the poll started and except for a slim margin on 8/28 and a tie on 9/5, I have been in the minority (let’s call it “contrarian”) every time. Fortunately, I don’t care whether I am bullish or bearish. I just want to be as right as I can be. In the case of the poll and market timing, I have been right and the bears have been wrong. When / if I eventually turn out to be wrong, I’ll make sure not to call myself a contrarian!