Technical Generalities

I look at about 5,000 charts each week so I don’t hesitate to think of myself as a technical analyst. But, today, when I hear over and over again on CNBC that market technicians are bearish, I wonder - am I missing something? After all, I am not bearish and it bugs me to hear statements of generalities that suggest every member of a group is one thing or the other. When it comes to technical analysis, you can count on ten chartists looking at the same squiggly lines and seeing ten different pictures. And while it is often said that “Great minds think alike…” so do stupid ones. I’d rather not be associated with either group at the moment and would prefer not to hear general comments that suggest that all technical analysts are bearish. Some of us are and some of us are not.

Last week was strong regardless of the attempts to downplay it or suggest there was not enough volume to validate the move. I heard some commentary that our failure to take out the May highs was evidence of a rally that was running out of gas. I laughed at that one because I much prefer a steady climb than a spike, especially since the market finally broke through and closed above some pretty heavy resistance at 1300 on the S&P. And if we are going to be critical of light volume moves, then today’s miniscule full day volume was worthy of major suspicion. All I ask is for you to apply a healthy dose of that suspicion to about every general statement you see or hear, even if they should accidentally find their way onto this site.

This market is facing challenges from many fronts - geopolitics, oil, potential hurricanes, rate speculation, etc. At any time, one of those factors could send us lower. However, at present, things are looking pretty good to me and I am not going to talk them down. I’ll let you know when I change my mind and you can be assured it won’t be part of some anonymous general statement.