Technical Index Levels

I prefer to evaluate the market’s technical levels by looking at the indicators of over 4000 stocks/ETFs each week and provide the HEDGEfolios Timing Indicator and Signal Indicator to summarize my view. It’s my version of a bottom up approach to technical analysis. This is significantly different than most other technicians because it requires a hell of a lot more work. Assessing an index chart of the S&P 500 or Dow Industrials is the shortcut that many other technicians spend their time on and except for the fact that everyone else is using this method, I find it only marginally useful. However, it is fast, simple and easy to communicate so I just accept it, listen politely and move on to my own work. When it comes to media discussions on CNBC or Bloomberg, all you hear is the analysis of these index charts by studio guests and more importantly, the futures traders who take time out to opine from the pits. As I found out from my Bloomberg spot on Monday night, soundbites and easy to understand concepts are the only things that work for tv. So in the spirit of giving people what they want and playing nice with others, I’ll offer up my rare take of the technical levels on the various indices.

S&P 500: 1,510 to 1,540 bullish but not confirming a continuation of the bull trend until 3 consecutive closes above 1,540. Any close below 1,510 is bearish with any 3 consecutive closes below 1,495 very bearish. Next support level is 1,455 and that is weak with stronger support at 1,390.

Dow 30: 13,500 to 13,690 bullish but not confirming a continuation of the bull trend until 3 consecutive closes above 13,700. Any close below 13,400 is bearish with any 3 consecutive closes below 13,300 very bearish. Next support level is 12,750 and that is weak with stronger support at 12,300.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE: 2,580 to 2,620 bullish but not confirming a continuation of the bull trend until 3 consecutive closes above 2,620. Any close below 2,570 is bearish with any 3 consecutive closes below 2,545 very bearish. Next support level is 2,520 and that is weak with stronger support at 2,400.