Twenty years ago, a wise and rich businessman gave me some advice. He said… “Never believe your own bullshit.” He went on to tell me that it’s important to develop a good story and bluff in business from time to time, but it’s critical that you never convince yourself it is true. I laughed politely then and have continued laughing through the years when I ran into someone who was obviously violating the “bullshit rule.” Every time I hear someone from the Fed discussing how the risks of a slowing economy or further credit market turmoil have diminished, I wonder….did any of these people ever hear of the “bullshit rule?” And if they did, are they believing the crap they are spewing? I know Bernanke and the Fed are all about managing expectations these days and maybe they think they can talk us out of the mess we are in, but if that is what we are expecting to tame inflation or strengthen the dollar to halt the commodity pressures….we are screwed.