The Fed’s Stock Market
From the middle of July’s market peak until today, go back and review all the gains caused by the Fed and Fed-induced short covering. Be objective. How much of the rally can you attribute to real buying based upon fundamentals? Remember that stuff- the things that supposedly are the basis for stock prices and long term investing? On the other hand, how much of the positive action has been due to surprise Fed intervention like August 17th, Fed commentary like Kohn today, rumors of Fed rate cuts like August 16th, actual Fed rate cuts like September 18th and October 31st? If you subtract out all those 1 or 2% moves, you are left with a massive selloff. Now let’s look at the market reasons that stocks might have declined - poor 3rd quarter earnings, a declining dollar, inflation, the frozen commercial paper market, investment and money center bank writeoffs, a struggling consumer, mortgage defaults, etc. etc. This is the Fed’s stock market - bought and paid for. The bulls and the bears have been doing nothing but selling on the realities of the poor fundamentals and buying whenever the Fed gives them a reason to do so. Are you investing in the Fed or are you investing in stocks?

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