The Only Thing We Have To Fear is …
I’d like to finish the title with “…Fear itself” and give credit to FDR. But I cannot do that because it would imply that all fear is irrational. That all we need to do is overcome or ignore the fear and the real threat will just go away.
Instead, I am fearing something else. What I fear is what I know I do not know and what I believe Chairman Bernanke knows but cannot tell us other than through the severity of his actions. I have to go with that or I would give up on the institution.
You see, I have tremendous faith and respect for Ben Bernanke and all the members of the Fed. And yet, I look at all their actions over the past few weeks and the actions of the other central banks and it all seems so excessive compared to to what has been made public about the dangers in debt and equity markets. I cannot buy into the argument that they were just responding to equity markets near record highs or a few billion dollars of subprime losses or a few hedge fund blowups or redemptions or commercial paper or whatever other fears have been made public. When you factor in the nonexistent borrowings from the discount window over the past week - it just doesn’t make sense. None of these calamities on their own seem worthy of the actions taken and to be honest, all of them combined do not rise to that level.
The Fed is made up of our best economic minds and they know all too well the risks of Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection. They are making decisions that will affect monetary policy for decades and they will be judged by history. I believe in their intelligence, their respect for the institution of the Fed and their commitments to the oaths they have sworn. And that is why my fear remains - I know I do not know what they know.

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