The Price Is Wrong

After rereading my previous post about getting “Yahooed“, I realize it seems that I expect YHOO will get whacked tomorrow. While that is certainly my guess, there is no guarantee. Over the past 3 months, many investors have gone on record as saying the fair value of Yahoo shares was above $31 and some said at least $40. Okay - put up or shut up time. It’s either “The Price is Right” or “The Price is Wrong.” Let’s see whether the market is right or the Yahoo Board of Directors or other YHOO optimists are right. Maybe Yang and some private equity biggies will offer to take the company out at $40 per share. Maybe Yahoo’s largest institutional investors who have been pushing for a few more dollars will ante up. Maybe the 11,000 + shareholders will refuse to sell for anything less than what Yang said was fair value. Maybe GOOG will just offer up a crazy deal like Yahoo tried to suggest was on the way. Maybe some other competitor will see this as a great opportunity. Maybe Microsoft will have “almost-buyer’s remorse” and apologize and increase their offer. Maybe the company will offer to make good on their claims by conducting a strange buyback program of a gazillion dollars at above market prices just to prove how right they are. Yes, I am just being sarcastic. I don’t believe any of those things will happen soon enough or ever or in sufficient quantity to prevent YHOO from getting whacked tomorrow. But I wanted to try to be fair and say that anything is possible. All the suspense will be over in less than 12 hours. And after that, we’ll see how many people claiming they wouldn’t sell to Microsoft for less than $33 or $35 or $37 or $40, whichever the case may be are willing to sell to anyone at prices below $31.  We will see who believes in Yahoo’s brand value and the company’s discounted cash flows. We’ll see who really believes in long term buy-and-hold strategies. We’ll be able to look at share volumes and block trades and later, 13-Fs to figure out what investors really did, not what they said others should do.