The Results Of The Last Fed Cut
In 15 minutes, the FOMC will release their decision on rates. The majority of the market really cares what happens. I suspect that many people are “true believers” that government intervention is necessary to save the economy. Others who want a cut just want a cut because they feel that lower rates will push the market higher and get us back to record highs. And yet, there is a subset of us who see a bigger picture where rate cuts have both positive and negative impacts. But nevermind that for now. Just look at what happened after the last cut of 50 bps on September 18th. The S&P 500 went up 50 points in about 3 weeks before it peaked and then declined 80 points from the record high before the Fed rumors started flying again. So in the end, the last cut provided short term gains for traders - that’s it. The rumor a week and a half ago about an intermeeting cut stopped the decline and pushed us higher again. A nice trade, but is it investment? I don’t see it. Since mid-August, the FOMC has made great decisions for traders, but as for longer term investors - I guess we’ll have to wait for a long term to find out. Just ask yourself, if the market is truly so bullish and all the negative stuff I keep talking about is irrelevant then why are we not a lot higher on positive fundamentals? Who is selling? If you shouldn’t fight the Fed, then who among the bullish crowd are fighting?. Who are the hypocrites that keep selling into the strength just so they can trade on the next Fed rumor or meeting?

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