Third Warning Of 2009

I am going to ride this rally as hard and long as I can.   It’s been fun and I don’t change signals on an individual stock unless the fundamental or technical analysis confirms that it’s time.  Since March 2, 2009 (when I gave the Second Warning Of 2009) and including this past week, I have been increasingly bullish.

But make no mistake…..I am waiting patiently to head in the other direction.  I have a massive wave of charts (over 1000) that I am watching very closely.   My brand of technical analysis identifies when price action is inconsistent with the underlying technical support.   Sooner or later….the price fails.   This condition has persisted the past 3 weeks and yet, each week I have given more new UPs than DOWNs.   This is my version of “waiting patiently”.    However, the current situation is at levels I have only seen 3 prior times in the past 2 years… May 2007 and November 2008 and January 2009.  We know how those turned out and consequently, I am on heightened alert this time around.

Please analyze all your positions very closely.   It’s better to get comfortable with the idea of exiting a position before the moment happens so you can identify it objectively and timely and execute without hesitation.   That’s what I am doing and until I have reason to change individual signals, I am letting them run.