Ticker Sense Vote

This week, I voted “bullish” in the Ticker Sense Blogger poll and haven’t done so since the first week of November. Even though this was my first chance to vote on the poll after the HEDGEfolios Timing Indicator gave its bullish bias last week, it was not an easy choice. One of the most challenging aspects of the poll for me is that I have to predict whether I think the S&P 500 will be higher or lower a month from now. I toughed out all those weeks of bearish votes and was wrong for most of them until the most recent pullback.  I really didn’t have much time to enjoy being vindicated for all those months of bearishness.  Now I have an opportunity to be bullish in my one-month outlook and it is unsettling. I gave it some thought because I am very doubtful that this rally will break through February’s highs and there is a very good probability that a failure at those levels will precipitate a move below the current level of 1436. As I wrote the other day, I didn’t like the slope and extent of last week’s move. Nonetheless, I am going with the data I have and that info from last week is bullish regardless of my personal opinion. While I expect the current rally to be short in size and duration, it’s not up for me to decide - so I am going to just watch it play out. For what it’s worth, I expect the next decline to be longer lasting and deeper than the mini-correction we just went through. Until then, I am going to try to enjoy being bullish.