Tipping Point

I fear that we are nearing a tipping point in this market - that moment where enough critical mass accumulates to start a significant decline. Sounds like gloom and doom talk (even to a “negative” guy like me) but that is what I saw in my review of 3000 stocks this holiday weekend - so take it for what it’s worth. Last week, the indices gained about 1% and even managed three consecutive up days to seemingly achieve a calming effect. I wish I was calm, but after my analysis, that is the opposite of how I feel. One of the scariest aspects of last week was the percentage of the move that came from GM and its positive impact on the market’s overall tone. Even though Hedgefolios has had an Up signal on GM since 5/8/06, I just cannot get excited that this company is representative of what we need to lead this market forward. The majority of the rebound came from previously strong stocks that recovered some of their recent declines but there was an almost total absence of new leadership. What I had hoped to find in my analysis was a broad based move in stocks that were ending a decline and looking like they could turn higher for an extended period of time. No such luck - very few weak stocks got stronger. Good luck with your portfolios this week - it’s crunch time.