Trading The Unbelievable
Today’s CPI number is entirely unbelievable. However, it is a trading opportunity. The market is dominated by traders and not investors. So stop asking why this bogus inflation number is being believed by the market or suggesting that the market’s rally in response somehow validates or certifies the number as being appropriately bullish. It doesn’t matter whether the number is right or whether it fairly represents the consumer’s experience with rising prices. Traders do not need to believe in the long term realities - only the short term opportunities. If the CPI data would have not been manipulated or somehow had shown up as much hotter than expected, it would have been a trading opportunity for the downside. Regardless of how the CPI data is reported or used by the market, it does not change the real inflation rate being experienced by consumers. So for today, traders are exploiting the number….it doesn’t matter whether they believe the unbelievable number…it only matters that they believe they can trade the unbelievable number and make money on it. Can you imagine that today’s data would come out and traders would say - “We don’t believe the CPI and even though we could use it to make money, we are just going to skip the opportunity.”

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