Vote Me Out

Every election period we get barraged with the message that politicians are primarily responsible for the economy and the markets. Who can forget “It’s the economy stupid” and all the sentiment that encompasses? It’s almost as if we should assume that companies are run by the President, Senator, or Representative and not the voters. If the economy is bad, the out-of-power party attempts to tag the incumbents with all the blame. If the economy is good, the incumbents try to take all the credit - except this time it isn’t working. In this election, the Republicans can try all they want, but the economy and the markets are not resonating with most voters.

Of course, I don’t believe the merits of any of these claims. The economy is run by voters and except for a few macro issues or specific trade policies, I think the impact of politics on our business climate is grossly exaggerated, especially at election time. For the most part, it’s a great vote-getting tactic for the masses who love to place all the responsibility for their lives in the hands of the government. I do buy into the impact of taxes on consumer behavior and their trickledown effects on the economy, but that is about it for me. I choose to believe in capitalism and have great faith in producers and consumers to determine the course of our business success or failure. I know that may seem ignorantly unAmerican with all the brainwashing going on during the campaign ad blitz, but I am sticking with it.

Even more ridiculous is the debate about which party is better for the market. Each side points to certain bullish periods in the market history and spins that they are the cause of the gains. We also get studies that attempt to show what combination of control works best for the market such as split Congress with Democrat president or one-party dominance like the past few years, etc. etc. Some suggest that the market loves gridlock in Washington DC and in my opinion, all this theory is a waste of time.  I hope that none of these massaged statistics will influence your vote. There are so many political issues to evaluate that actually mean something - please focus on them.

The last time I checked, very few politicians were known for being great investors. I’d love to vote for Warren Buffett, but he isn’t running. On the other hand, I don’t find Bill Frist’s questionable HCA trades, Hillary Clinton’s cattle future investment, Harry Reid’s Nevada real estate windfall, or any number of politician investments to be inspiring. Their investing “prowess” wouldn’t encourage me to vote for them or against them. It’s funny, but I vote for politicians based upon their political beliefs, not their investing beliefs or the mistaken belief that they will help or hurt the market. Once again, I just want to remind everyone that voters buy and sell stocks. Maybe we do it with a hint of the political aspects such as capital gains tax or dividend taxation, but I doubt that it is ever the sole reason we are willing to buy a stock, even pharma or big oil. If I am wrong on all this and the market is just a puppet for one politician or another, VOTE ME OUT!