Warning Sign

Every once in a while, a strange pattern that is either bullish or bearish will catch my eye and when it happens repeatedly during my weekly review of the HEDGEfolios universe, I spend more time on it. I normally don’t look at them as proof of anything - just something that creates a pause and makes me pay closer attention to many of the other indicators I follow. This week, I noticed a high number of stocks that closed at or near the low of the week. This is a classic technical analysis issue that presents itself well with Candlesticks, but I’ll spare the techspeak and just sum it up by saying  - it is a warning sign.  I decided to look at the actual numbers and found that Friday’s action had over 31% of the 3044 stocks closing within one-half percent (0.5%) of the low.  Anecdotally, the last time I saw this situation affecting so many charts was the beginning of April.  Note that the HEDGEfolios Timing Indicator gave its last new bearish reading on April 10th.  I am not saying that I expect the market to decline immediately, but this poor closing action from last week certainly has my interest piqued.  I still have a bullish reading on the market, but it’s an increasingly skeptical one.