Warning Sign
Every once in a while, a strange pattern that is either bullish or bearish will catch my eye and when it happens repeatedly during my weekly review of the HEDGEfolios universe, I spend more time on it. I normally don’t look at them as proof of anything - just something that creates a pause and makes me pay closer attention to many of the other indicators I follow. This week, I noticed a high number of stocks that closed at or near the low of the week. This is a classic technical analysis issue that presents itself well with Candlesticks, but I’ll spare the techspeak and just sum it up by saying - it is a warning sign. I decided to look at the actual numbers and found that Friday’s action had over 31% of the 3044 stocks closing within one-half percent (0.5%) of the low. Anecdotally, the last time I saw this situation affecting so many charts was the beginning of April. Note that the HEDGEfolios Timing Indicator gave its last new bearish reading on April 10th. I am not saying that I expect the market to decline immediately, but this poor closing action from last week certainly has my interest piqued. I still have a bullish reading on the market, but it’s an increasingly skeptical one.

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